Mesoscale Discussion 1397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021
Concerning...Tornado Watch 404...
Valid 302331Z - 310100Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 404 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across ww404.
DISCUSSION...Upper high has settled south into northeast OK early
this evening. As a result, a fair amount of convection has developed
around the western periphery of this feature across the higher
terrain of CO into southeast WY. Over the last few hours, mid-level
flow has gradually turned more northwesterly across NE and this is
providing substantial directional turning with height along/just
north of the surface boundary that remains draped across the
southern third of the state. Strong surface heating is noted across western/southern NE which is contributing to MLCAPE values near 4000
J/kg along a corridor from near BBW-FNB. Several slow-moving
supercells have evolved between BBW-TIF with subsequent movement
southeast at only 10-15kt. Over the last half hour or so, new
thunderstorms are developing near the front over Garden County. With
time, both of these clusters should gradually spread/propagate
southeast along/just north of the wind shift.
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