• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1396

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 30 20:25:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302025
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302024=20
    NEZ000-302230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1396
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

    Areas affected...Central NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 302024Z - 302230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop within the next hour
    or so. Strong wind gusts should be the primary threat with any
    storms but isolated hail and a tornado or two are also possible.
    Given these threats, a watch will likely be needed by 21Z.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 40 miles
    west of MHN in northwest NE. A warm front extends southeastward from
    this low across central and southeast NE. Limited mixing in the
    vicinity of this front amid persistent low-level moisture advection
    has contributed to swath of 70-75 deg F dewpoints across central NE.
    Surface temperatures have recently climbed into the upper 80s/low
    80s, effectively eroding convective inhibition while also contribute
    to strong buoyancy. Visible satellite imagery has some deeper
    cumulus near the surface low and the current prediction is for
    eventual convective initiation in this area.=20

    Much of this region is on the southern edge of the better flow
    aloft, and the expectation is for initial development to be
    outflow-dominant. The overall thermodynamic profile appears very
    favorable for strong downdrafts. As such, strong wind gusts appear
    to be the primary threat. That being said, the strength of the
    buoyancy could still lead to isolated hail production. As the storm
    move eastward, and more southeasterly/easterly component to the
    surface will should contribute to an increase in low-level vertical
    shear. Additionally, strong vertical vorticity is in place near the
    warm front. These factors will contribute to the potential for a
    tornado or two. Given these anticipated threats and expectation for
    storm initiation within the hour, a watch will likely be needed by
    21Z.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 07/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pC-RrmWi6UdJrLBYttTu7_cvLoLCamH1TzXbMU-KD7tE-FlSxcgPISXSfuCXHaI1IQr-9iMJ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 42020181 42300133 42370031 42129921 41809816 41429760
    40879761 40299820 40299880 40419945 40750088 41040176
    41350208 41500212 42020181=20



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