• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1395

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 30 18:47:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301847
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301846=20
    NCZ000-302045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1395
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0146 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301846Z - 302045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms are likely to continue to
    develop through late afternoon. An organizing small cluster or two
    of storms is possible, posing at least some risk for locally strong
    downbursts and damaging surface gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently initiated to the south of
    Rocky Mount, along weakly confluent flow within pre-frontal surface
    troughing. This appears to coincide with the leading edge of weak
    cooling and moistening around 850 mb, in the presence of at least
    modest deep-layer shear beneath 30-35+ kt northwesterly flow around
    500 mb.

    Aided by inflow of very moist boundary-layer air with surface dew
    points in the mid/upper 70s, and characterized by sizable CAPE in
    excess of 2000 J/kg, vigorous convective development may persist
    this afternoon, largely supported by lift along convectively
    generated cold pools. Given the the favorable shear, a supercell
    structure or two is possible, and at least some upscale convective
    growth might not be out of the question.=20=20

    Warm mid-level temperatures seem likely to limit the potential for
    large hail, and low-level shear appears generally weak. However,
    with further insolation and steepening of low-level lapse rates, the environment should become conducive to a few downbursts aided by
    heavy precipitation loading.

    ..Kerr/Grams.. 07/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ub_5yqnXEx_PnWc6PnUKx6AshU65Y6PxlK3K7ReDLFnujhm_jEe5aA0iUyTU_nSdoEZSi3XX$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

    LAT...LON 35977797 36187687 36447590 35697566 35037719 34977816
    35347851 35757845 35977797=20



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