Mesoscale Discussion 1394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021
Areas affected...Far eastern Pennsylvania and central New Jersey
Concerning...Tornado Watch 401...
Valid 292309Z - 300045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 401 continues.
SUMMARY...The tornado threat will continue for much of central New
Jersey for the next 1-2 hours as storms approach the coast.
DISCUSSION...Convection moving eastward out of far eastern PA into
central NJ continues to exhibit organized supercellular structure,
and at least one confirmed tornado has been noted with this activity
over the past hour. Recent surface observations across NJ show winds
have backed slightly to the south/southeast, which has augmented
low-level helicity over the region. This is captured well by the
KDIX VWP, which exhibits strong veering in the lowest 3 km. Recent
RAP soundings compare well to these observed trends and suggest
upwards of 150-200 m2/s2 effective SRH is in place across the
region. This wind profile, coupled with sufficient instability, will
continue to support a tornado threat as storms move towards the NJ
coast over the next 1-2 hours.
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