• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1394

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 29 23:10:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292310
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292309=20
    NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-300045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1394
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0609 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

    Areas affected...Far eastern Pennsylvania and central New Jersey

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 401...

    Valid 292309Z - 300045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 401 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat will continue for much of central New
    Jersey for the next 1-2 hours as storms approach the coast.

    DISCUSSION...Convection moving eastward out of far eastern PA into
    central NJ continues to exhibit organized supercellular structure,
    and at least one confirmed tornado has been noted with this activity
    over the past hour. Recent surface observations across NJ show winds
    have backed slightly to the south/southeast, which has augmented
    low-level helicity over the region. This is captured well by the
    KDIX VWP, which exhibits strong veering in the lowest 3 km. Recent
    RAP soundings compare well to these observed trends and suggest
    upwards of 150-200 m2/s2 effective SRH is in place across the
    region. This wind profile, coupled with sufficient instability, will
    continue to support a tornado threat as storms move towards the NJ
    coast over the next 1-2 hours.

    ..Moore.. 07/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ocQdwLUmB_oGarBGJmQWNu_vgUkXkwsLB9sgk0WEbkedQiPwVAJn9SnwCj7blTYt67sRB5ux$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

    LAT...LON 39977544 40457494 40617440 40487386 40217370 39797371
    39227430 39367470 39637513 39977544=20



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