• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1393

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 29 22:52:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292252
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292251=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1393
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0551 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Missouri...Southeast Nebraska...Northeast
    Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 292251Z - 300015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across
    northern Missouri into extreme southeast Nebraska this evening.
    Gusty winds and marginally severe hail could be noted with the more
    aggressive storms.

    DISCUSSION...Center of upper anticyclone remains positioned over KS
    early this evening. Seasonally warm mid-level temperatures and weak northwesterly flow extend just north of this dominant feature across
    NE into northern MO where 500mb temperatures are around -4C with
    20-25kt of flow. Surface front is sagging south along the IA/MO
    border, extending into extreme southeast NE. This portion of the
    front is penetrating a boundary layer that has warmed into the mid
    90s with modest low-level lapse rates. Latest visible satellite
    imagery suggests a healthy cu field along the frontal zone with
    several robust updrafts now cycling over southern Mercer/northern
    Grundy into the Sullivan County region in northern MO. It appears
    this activity may continue to grow upscale as the front settles into
    this region over the next few hours. There is some concern for gusty
    winds and marginally severe hail with this activity but relatively
    warm mid levels in proximity to the anticyclone are somewhat
    inhibiting. Will continue to monitor for possible watch.

    ..Darrow/Goss.. 07/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tEqL0hqSLMdVtMJ-9bQTS1zeDImL-9chmn0SdtdR2RN4A_sNYUTz5nGtgJFi-GM69MCztWBg$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 40119683 40669545 40589356 40059170 39399145 39499249
    39839411 39869540 39789635 40119683=20



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