• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1392

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 29 22:34:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292234
    SPC MCD 292234=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1392
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0534 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Ohio into southwest Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403...

    Valid 292234Z - 300030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403

    SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat continues across much of
    the Ohio River Valley. Damaging winds and hail remain the primary
    concern, but brief tornadoes are possible across southeastern OH and
    southwest PA over the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from southeastern OH/southwest PA
    shows several discrete storms that have taken on supercellular
    characteristics. While most updrafts have been fairly transient (per
    GOES IR imagery and lightning trends), they have been strong enough
    to support brief, weak tornadoes. Storm motions should continue to
    favor discrete to semi-discrete storms in the near term, and an
    environment featuring 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (sampled by the KPBZ
    VWP) with 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates will remain supportive of a
    brief/weak tornado threat for the next couple of hours prior to
    sunset. Recent CAM guidance suggest additional convective
    development is possible across eastern OH into the overnight hours,
    though the severe threat may be conditional on the degree of
    convective overturning associated with the ongoing storms.

    Further west, a convective line driven by cold-pool propagation
    continues to surge southward into south-central OH. IR imagery and
    lightning trends show a few stronger updrafts embedded within the
    line, suggesting that a damaging wind/hail threat will persist for
    the near term. A gradual weakening trend is possible over the next
    2-3 hours as the line moves into an environment with weaker
    deep-layer shear. However, an instability gradient is noted from
    southwest OH into central KY that may allow storms to propagate
    southward. Trends will be monitored for the need for a downstream

    ..Moore.. 07/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s_Qbr1yAQYnCZnMf6YtfaSnziLf0KKMajAYXVXgF2xJXT9fNl1v-qbxc5umLj38XMi8s0zUZ$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39898445 39758300 39698242 39848195 40148158 40518142
    40828113 40768049 40447982 39897943 39467966 39268031
    39168115 38908189 38758249 38668307 38788389 39058505
    39378549 39788557 40038534 39898445=20

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