• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1390

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 29 19:19:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291919
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291919=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-292115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1390
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0219 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Iowa...northeastern
    Missouri...central Illinois and Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 291919Z - 292115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered strengthening thunderstorm development through
    5-7 PM CDT may gradually pose increasing risk for locally damaging
    wind gusts. The potential for activity to consolidate into a larger
    cluster that would require a severe weather watch remains uncertain,
    and appears relatively low, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.

    DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent along a stalled outflow boundary has
    remained sufficient to maintain sustained modest thunderstorm
    development along a corridor near the Burlington, IA through Peoria,
    IL vicinities. Associated outflow and anvil cloud cover and light precipitation continue to impact the environment to the southeast of
    this activity, but the influence may be waning with a corridor of
    recent stronger surface pressure falls evident in observations
    across the Springfield and Mattoon, IL vicinities. Additionally,
    scattered new thunderstorm development is underway in closer
    proximity to the outflow boundary, near/north of the Interstate 74
    corridor, into central Indiana.

    The newer thunderstorm development coincides with a corridor
    seasonably high precipitable water on the order of 2 inches, in the
    presence of modest shear beneath 20-40 kt northwesterly flow around
    the 500 mb level. Gradually, with increasing inflow of a very moist
    boundary layer characterized by mid/upper 70s surface dew points,
    and large CAPE growing in excess of 3000-4000 J/kg with increasing
    insolation, substantive further intensification appears probable
    through 22-00Z. This may include the evolution of isolated
    supercells and small organizing clusters, with at least modestly
    steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates and heavy precipitation
    loading contributing to the risk for potentially damaging wind
    gusts.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pRzOD7PfJKEKgQlQ9OWvr4eXJ_cer8LKOGvVmWSU_pB3TNy0mJdxCcvYx6I2Ns47YAGx-PvQ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40809250 40869094 40858985 40788911 40548762 39848493
    38838683 39058987 39789180 40809250=20



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