• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1389

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 29 18:49:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291849
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291848=20
    OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-292045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1389
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0148 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

    Areas affected...Southern OH

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 291848Z - 292045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this
    afternoon. Environmental conditions support severe storms and trends
    are being monitored for watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Air mass across southern OH continues to destabilize
    amid clear skies and strong heating. Large-scale ascent across the
    region is modest, but still strong enough to initiate convection
    given the lack of convective inhibition. The warm and moist
    conditions in place support moderate to strong instability, and
    recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg. This region is
    also on the southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow, with
    resulting effective bulk shear of 40 to 50 kt. Minimal forcing
    should result in mostly cellular convection, with the overall
    environment supporting robust updrafts capable of isolated hail and
    damaging downburst winds. Storm coverage may be high enough to merit
    watch issuance, and convective trends are being monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tqtOvLIxuRxnOk74_x0l2BimbjjRSUor1TvKC3lZZiyix8gOPERRk9sU4QtD_s1MncsDPnLy$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 40388470 40378283 40258115 39758097 38988178 38638246
    38698327 39208468 40388470=20



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