• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1388

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 29 17:22:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291722
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291721=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-291915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1388
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

    Areas affected...Central/South-Central PA...Central MD...Extreme
    Northern VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 291721Z - 291915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Increase in storm coverage and intensity possible, with a corresponding threat for damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Convectively induced shortwave trough continues to
    progress quickly eastward across the upper OH Valley. Strongest
    forcing for ascent within this shortwave appears to be moving
    through central and southwest PA now, demarcated by a line of
    slightly higher reflectivity from roughly Clearfield County
    southwestward through Greene County. Estimated motion with the
    northern/central portion of the line is eastward at around 45 kt.
    Southern portion of this line appears to be a bit slower, with storm
    motion estimated to be east-southeastward at 35 kt. In both cases,
    this area of stronger ascent will continue to move eastward across
    PA and adjacent northern WV/western MD as the downstream air mass
    destabilizes.

    Abundant mid to upper level clouds are obscuring the low-level cloud
    field as well as tempering heating. Even so, some cumulus can still
    be seen across eastern areas of the region and temperatures have
    risen into the upper 70s/low 80s. Based on modified RAP forecast
    soundings, any remaining convective inhibition is minimal.
    Consequently, an increase in storm coverage and intensity seems
    possible as this shortwave continues eastward into this region over
    the next hour or two. The overall environment supports bowing line
    segments capable of damaging wind gusts with any more robust,
    long-lived storms.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ri9_Lo-fd2FR3PUOcLDL7UNbUWaOwPDqNjU--DVU_qN0-L7zo_wnlHjy_Z5fhQ8pdWcxrLEh$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 40877782 40887711 40747663 40237645 39397690 39017767
    39737881 40547830 40877782=20



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