• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1387

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 29 15:59:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291559
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291558=20
    VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-291800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1387
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1058 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

    Areas affected...Central/Eastern WV...Far Western MD...Far Northwest
    VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 291558Z - 291800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is possible over the next
    few hours, with a resulting increase in the threat for damaging wind
    gusts. Convective trends are being monitored for possible watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite imagery depict a
    well-defined mesoscale convective vortex over southeast OH.
    Estimated motion of this MCV is southeast at around 42-45 kt, which
    takes it into central WV near 17Z and to the northern WV/VA border
    by 18Z. Air mass downstream of this MCV is only weakly buoyant as
    this time, but limited cloud cover should result in further diurnal
    heating and resulting destabilization. Ascent attendant to the MCV
    coupled with the anticipated air mass destabilization will likely
    result in thunderstorm development. Overall thunderstorm coverage is
    still uncertain, particularly given the potential for some mixing
    out of the low-level moisture currently in place. Nevertheless, this
    region is on the southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow and
    some localized enhancement of the low-level flow is possible in the
    immediate vicinity of the MCV. As a result, the presence of at least
    modest vertical shear suggests a few stronger, more robust updrafts
    are possible, with an attendant threat for damaging wind gusts. As
    mentioned, storm coverage is still uncertain but convective trends
    will be monitored over the next few hours for potential watch
    issuance downstream across eastern WV, far western MD, and far
    northwest VA.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rVhONA1bEsTk0l2tiETCTFvfD8zRe_AMDcAlnaxNrAcduYkFXMVeCYeY9kb73pK6taYllC5k$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 39518056 39907984 39817897 39507845 38697855 37837935
    37838043 38328114 39518056=20



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