Mesoscale Discussion 1386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021
Areas affected...Portions of northeastern IN...northwestern OH...and
far southern Lower MI
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400...
Valid 290955Z - 291130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400
SUMMARY...An isolated wind threat continues in the short term.
Downstream watch issuance this morning is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION...The northeastern segment of an MCS has persisted early
this morning across parts of northern IN. A measured wind gust to 65
mph associated with this MCS was recorded at 0915Z at the Goshen
Airport ASOS. Based on recent velocity data from the KIWX radar, a
continued threat for isolated strong to severe winds should continue
in the short term across portions of northeastern IN. The airmass is
less unstable downstream into northwestern OH and far southeastern
Lower MI per recent mesoanalysis estimates, with MLCAPE generally
500-1000 J/kg. While a threat for occasional strong/gusty winds may
continue with this small cluster across northwestern OH and
vicinity, the overall severe threat appears rather isolated.
Therefore, downstream watch issuance this morning is unlikely at
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