• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1385

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 29 08:19:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290818
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290818=20
    MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-290945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1385
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0318 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northern IL/IN and southwestern Lower
    MI

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400...

    Valid 290818Z - 290945Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A strong to severe wind threat continues in the short
    term. Storms should gradually weaken with southward extent across
    northern Illinois/Indiana later this morning.

    DISCUSSION...Both IR cloud tops and radar echo tops associated with
    the ongoing MCS across northern IL have recently warmed and
    weakened, respectively. Still, a swath of strong to severe wind
    gusts (generally 50-65 mph) and related damage reports have occurred
    across the Chicago metro area over the past hour or so. The airmass
    downstream of this ongoing convection across northern IL/IN and
    southwestern Lower MI becomes less unstable with southward extent,
    as both surface temperatures and dewpoints slowly decrease. While a
    threat for scattered damaging wind gusts will continue in the short
    term across this region, current expectations are for the MCS to
    continue gradually weakening over the next couple of hours as it
    encounters increasing convective inhibition and less instability.
    This evolution appears well supported by the past couple of runs of
    the HRRR.

    ..Gleason.. 07/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sV1os-WFos28Xd7S5n89r2WIAaa4R5QaDIAx6SUjdnxpAPp1OL__2naVqxpWYqAg6gT5wUlF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...

    LAT...LON 42088885 41838832 41928777 42078727 42448678 42698615
    42468515 42118509 41618529 41128590 40748691 40698795
    40908877 41208905 41858910 42088885=20



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