• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1384

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 29 06:35:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290634
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290634=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-290800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1384
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0134 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southeastern WI and northeastern
    IL...including Chicago

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399...400...

    Valid 290634Z - 290800Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399, 400
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest threat for 60-75 mph wind gusts and perhaps a
    tornado will likely focus across portions of southeastern Wisconsin
    and northeastern Illinois in the short term.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KMKX has recently shown a bookend
    vortex with at least one prior CC minimum moving from Jefferson into
    Waukesha counties in southeastern WI around 0615-0630Z. With ample
    low-level shear still present ahead of the ongoing MCS across
    southern WI and to the south of a warm front located over Lake
    Michigan and Lower MI, a threat for a tornado or two embedded within
    the MCS will likely persist in the short term. Otherwise, scattered severe/damaging winds of 60-75 mph will impact a greater portion of southeastern WI into northeastern IL, as 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
    and a rich low-level airmass are present across this area. The apex
    of the bow appears to be moving southward around 35-45 kt, and the
    overall severe threat is expected to increase across northeastern
    IL, including the Chicago metro, over the next couple of hours (by 3
    AM CDT).

    ..Gleason.. 07/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uJYOvdmlJpwkbDrIW02Eazwf_G7BUOuPABX5gBefNn_fL71qgZNzj6fFyuhBG3LBHJ5XZGAi$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...

    LAT...LON 42808935 41968929 41568849 41568753 41848747 42308771
    42728768 42958767 43178824 42948870 42808935=20



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