• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1383

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 29 05:33:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290532
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290532=20
    INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-290700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1383
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1232 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northern IL/IN and southwestern Lower
    MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 290532Z - 290700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for at least scattered damaging wind gusts should
    continue overnight. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely
    soon.

    DISCUSSION...A well-organized MCS is ongoing as of 0530Z across much
    of southern WI. The eastern segment of this MCS is moving
    south-southeastward around 35-45 kt, and multiple reports of damage
    have recently occurred in eastern WI. With its current motion,
    expectations are for this MCS to continue into parts of northern
    IL/IN and perhaps southwestern Lower MI in the next couple of hours.
    Although some convective inhibition is present owing to slight
    nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer, the 00Z sounding from DVN
    did show ample instability with a very moist low-level airmass
    remaining over this region. Given the linear nature of the ongoing
    storms, the presence of at least moderate instability downstream,
    and 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, at least scattered damaging winds
    should continue to be a threat for several more hours. Accordingly,
    a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued soon to
    address this threat.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sL_-yCnxuHeal86CGDGeiVusg2z0TvdElpVvx4BCnxoe7hP0CQXKKuEXS4Dzg3gzNPXmzf0a$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...DVN...

    LAT...LON 42449045 41758949 41038827 40828715 40848620 41118554
    41818532 42338533 42618615 42428697 42449045=20



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