Mesoscale Discussion 1382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021
Areas affected...East-central MN...WI
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399...
Valid 290424Z - 290600Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across the watch area, and the
risk for damaging winds, with gusts in excess of 75 mph, will remain
possible. Large hail and a couple tornadoes may also occur.
DISCUSSION...Severe storms producing damaging/significant severe
winds and large hail were in progress across west-central through
central WI as of 0415z. Radar reflectivity and velocity data have
sampled well-organized rear-inflow jets with smaller-scale bowing
segments within the line, with several reports of severe winds
received thus far. Strengthening warm advection in association with
a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet, and moderate/strong MLCAPE over
much of discussion area, will continue to result in a favorable
downstream environment into the overnight time frame. Current
expectations are for storms to continue moving south/southeast along
an instability gradient over far southeast MN, southern WI and
perhaps extreme northeast IA through 07z.
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