• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1381

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 29 03:18:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290318
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290317=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-290415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1381
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1017 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

    Areas affected...Western Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399...

    Valid 290317Z - 290415Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399
    continues.

    SUMMARY...There is an increasing threat for severe (potentially high
    end) damaging winds across portions of western Wisconsin and eastern
    Minnesota.

    DISCUSSION...Recent KARX and KMPX radar trends show an increasing
    area of strong winds in St. Croix county with hints of an increasing
    rear inflow jet over the past few scans. Given the very unstable
    downstream environment (3500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 40 knots of flow at
    1km from the KMPX VWP, the environment is primed for very strong
    winds. Therefore, as this cluster moves southeast and matures,
    hurricane force winds are likely. The current trajectory of this
    cluster would bring the threat into portions of southeast Minnesota
    which are not currently in watch 399. Therefore, after collaboration
    with the local forecast office in La Crosse, Wisconsin, watch 399
    will be expanded into southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa.

    ..Bentley.. 07/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!upVMf_i9wiLONzZJaYAKiI-tROD19G6XaUffPPaKrkhL2FuqvGcV8p_EV0aklF-aAqcy9QLQ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 45239264 45179212 44759158 44129127 43789128 43749147
    43859200 44009249 44389291 45159302 45239264=20



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