SUMMARY...Rapid development of supercell thunderstorms is
anticipated in the next few hours, with a risk for very large hail,
damaging winds, and potentially a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch
will likely be issued prior to 00z.
DISCUSSION...A warm front extended south/southeast across
central/southern MN at 22z, and this front will continue to move
east through this evening as a weak surface low moves east across
central MN. Latest visible imagery reveals moderate/towering cumulus
over central MN north of the Twin Cities area, embedded within a
larger area of clouds over central/northern MN and northern WI.
Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop in the next
few hours near the warm front and move southeast during the evening. Northwesterly deep-layer shear of 45-55 kts in the vicinity of the
front will support intense supercells initially, and
locally-enhanced 0-3 km SRH will be favorable for low-level rotation
and potential for tornado development. Steep mid-level lapse rates
will also support a risk for very large hail, and damaging winds are
also expected. Current thinking is that the tornado threat will
warrant a Tornado Watch for the first few hours after initiation
given the near-storm environment, with eventual transition into a
fast-moving MCS with widespread damaging wind potential later this evening/overnight.=20=20
A Tornado Watch will likely be coordinated with affected NWS Weather
Forecast Offices prior to 00z.
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