• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1378

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 28 22:10:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282209
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282209=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-290015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1378
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0509 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

    Areas affected...portions of east-central and northeast
    MN...northern WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 282209Z - 290015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Rapid development of supercell thunderstorms is
    anticipated in the next few hours, with a risk for very large hail,
    damaging winds, and potentially a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch
    will likely be issued prior to 00z.

    DISCUSSION...A warm front extended south/southeast across
    central/southern MN at 22z, and this front will continue to move
    east through this evening as a weak surface low moves east across
    central MN. Latest visible imagery reveals moderate/towering cumulus
    over central MN north of the Twin Cities area, embedded within a
    larger area of clouds over central/northern MN and northern WI.
    Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop in the next
    few hours near the warm front and move southeast during the evening. Northwesterly deep-layer shear of 45-55 kts in the vicinity of the
    front will support intense supercells initially, and
    locally-enhanced 0-3 km SRH will be favorable for low-level rotation
    and potential for tornado development. Steep mid-level lapse rates
    will also support a risk for very large hail, and damaging winds are
    also expected. Current thinking is that the tornado threat will
    warrant a Tornado Watch for the first few hours after initiation
    given the near-storm environment, with eventual transition into a
    fast-moving MCS with widespread damaging wind potential later this evening/overnight.=20=20

    A Tornado Watch will likely be coordinated with affected NWS Weather
    Forecast Offices prior to 00z.

    ..Bunting/Goss.. 07/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uFmN2OCPe5nGg7UeGCFq_nfdK28pVDmv5ZGywwoMvC2KFWxjtiW8rOkaHuRUk1-fr3DUEl_B$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 45009333 45859421 46629429 47149383 47309309 46959223
    46869141 46549074 46259042 45789046 45209061 44779106
    44629200 45009333=20



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