• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1376

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 28 20:33:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282033
    SPC MCD 282032=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1376
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0332 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

    Areas affected...North-Central MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 282032Z - 282230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may develop
    across north-central MN over the next few hours. Large hail and
    strong wind gust are possible with any storms that do develop.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from just
    west of Lake Of The Woods County MN southwestward through southeast
    North Dakota. The air mass ahead of this cold front continues to
    destabilize as low-level moist advection persists. Surface
    observations show temperatures have climbed into the mid 80s across north-central MN where skies have cleared briefly. According to
    mesoanalysis, this heating has eroded the convective inhibition and
    at least some modest cumulus has started to build across this
    region. Expectation is for isolated to scattered convective
    initiation to occur along and ahead of the front.=20

    Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the warm and moist low-level air
    mass are supporting strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis suggests
    MLCAPE above 2000 J/kg across the region, with higher instability
    just southwest across west-central/southwest MN. Vertical shear is
    also quite strong, with recent mesoanalysis estimating effective
    bulk shear around 50-60 kt. These environmental conditions will
    support severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind
    gusts once initiation occurs. Storm coverage remains uncertain, but
    trends are being monitored closely for potential watch issuance.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tOtIEf8Ae7BRUkYctO0DLv-MJc_BsqdiWsETpTgog-Dok6S0QgaV71pkkrxNmNePXg_wLQos$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 47869617 48419563 49229520 49349491 49099474 48729462
    48499386 47739422 47049508 47339618 47869617=20

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