• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1374

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 28 17:59:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281759
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281759=20
    MNZ000-282000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1374
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1259 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

    Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast MN...MN Arrowhead

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 281759Z - 282000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail is possible this afternoon from north-central
    MN through the MN Arrowhead.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from far
    southeast Saskatchewan southwestward across far northwest MN and
    through southeast ND. A surface low resides along this boundary
    about 15 miles east of GFK. A warm front extends arcs southeastward
    from this low across north-central MN and then back more southward
    across east-central MN. A secondary low exists over far southeast
    ND, with another warm front extending southeastward across southwest
    MN. This second warm front is demarcated well by the 75 deg F
    isodrosotherm.=20

    Moderate low-level southwesterly flow is in place within the warm
    sector of MN, and the attendant warm-air advection across the
    northern warm front is contributing to thunderstorm development.
    Much of this activity is north of the International Border. However,
    some more southerly development has occurred, including one fairly
    strong storm moving across Koochiching County. Persistent warm-air
    advection could result in additional development across this region.
    The overall environment is characterized by steep mid-level lapse
    rates and strong flow aloft. Recent mesoanalysis estimates bulk
    effective shear over the region exceeds 50 kt. As a result, any
    updrafts that can persist should be able to organize/rotate, with an
    attendant threat for large hail.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rS24QhWLkI2cV8WZxaYlG75EhqjaRo6Ato_uDxa7aIm3fV1E_NR4VR2pOns-Lx0D32enLyms$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

    LAT...LON 49349520 49199414 48219030 47579086 47229234 48349542
    48869578 49349520=20



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