• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1373

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 28 16:36:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281636
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281636=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-281830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1373
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

    Areas affected...Southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 281636Z - 281830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible with
    organized multicells and isolated supercells storms this afternoon.
    A watch is likely in the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...With convective temperatures already being reached
    across parts of eastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina, storm
    coverage is expected to increase this afternoon within a weak, but
    modestly deepening, surface trough. Signs of this are already
    evident in southeastern Virginia where cumulus have deepened and a
    storm has recently developed near the southern Chesapeake Bay.
    Continued mid-level cooling and effective shear (30-40 kts)
    supportive of organized storms, the threat for damaging winds and
    isolated large hail will continue to increase through the afternoon.
    A severe thunderstorm watch is likely this afternoon, though timing
    on when storm coverage will be sufficient is somewhat uncertain.
    Observational trends along with model guidance would suggest a watch
    would be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!quM7Tn-1BM_clj8Xw_eF6dJX5kXV0QkGgUM3I3s-Pwyu-nx4EXZKd3i7GHP9UvV3TWQzq4nk$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 35357883 37517749 38117676 37997573 37297532 35857552
    35257608 34457757 34217796 34367853 35357883=20



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