• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1372

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 28 15:29:30 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281529
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281528=20
    MNZ000-281730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1372
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1028 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast/North-Central MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 281528Z - 281730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail are
    possible over the next few hours across north-central/northeast MN.

    DISCUSSION...Two strong updrafts have recently developed within the
    warm air advection regime across northeast MN. The environment over
    the region is characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates and
    strong low-level stability below about 750-700 mb. Above this layer,
    enough moisture is in place to limit convective inhibition and
    provide modest buoyancy. Additionally, strong northwesterly flow
    exists above 750-700 mb, supporting rotation/organization if
    updrafts can be maintained. The ongoing severe storms are evidence
    of this scenario. The air mass downstream of these storms across the
    MN Arrowhead is not as buoyant, but the organized character of these
    storms suggests that the threat for large hail may exist with these
    two storms for the next hour or two.=20

    Additional storm development appears possible back farther west
    across more of north-central MN where some deeper cumulus is
    currently clustered. As with the ongoing storms, any additional
    development would pose a threat for large hail.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tMY6Bnfj-7zY04RyT9wMyKFGCO1Hrmwx8AkJknNNY9d6OWQfOiFjaXT3AOFj397qyrqb12gR$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

    LAT...LON 47979576 48349521 48429439 48159378 47729298 47139240
    46559289 46499350 46899507 47329576 47979576=20



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