• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1371

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 28 07:49:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280748
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280748=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-281015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1371
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0248 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern ND...far northeastern
    SD...and western/central MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 280748Z - 281015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing mainly isolated large hail may
    develop through the early morning hours. Watch issuance appears
    unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A minor mid-level disturbance over the northern Plains
    appears to be rounding the apex of the upper high centered over the
    central Plains early this morning. This perturbation, coupled with a strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet over the northern
    Plains per recent mesoanalysis and area VWPs, is likely contributing
    to the uptick in convection across the far eastern Dakotas. The 00Z
    sounding from ABR sampled steep mid-level lapse rates (8.3 C/km in
    the 700-500-mb layer) atop a rich low-level airmass. Resultant
    instability remains very strong early this morning across the
    northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with MUCAPE of 3500-4500
    J/kg present in a fairly narrow corridor extending from eastern ND
    to southern MN. The flow across this region veers from around 30-35
    kt of southwesterly low-level winds to west-northwesterly while
    slowly strengthening at mid/upper levels. Related favorable
    deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt should prove favorable for updraft
    organization. An elevated supercell or two appears possible in this
    favorable environment, mainly posing a threat for isolated large
    hail. Even with some convective inhibition, strong to locally severe
    wind gusts may also occur given the large amount of instability
    present. At this point, the overall severe threat is expected to
    remain fairly isolated owing to the modest large-scale ascent aloft.
    While convective and observational trends will be closely monitored
    though the early morning, a watch currently appears unlikely.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ovI2p6kFbM77Aqh2PiuAlnsLrdmRBCoZVuOB_B-VMFnANbS_B3FyR3exZMTAzycO06jRmhxG$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 44379647 45479787 46699775 46909742 46619608 45639446
    44819445 44289540 44379647=20



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