Mesoscale Discussion 1369
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021
Areas affected...Southeast MN...southwest WI...northeast IA
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397...
Valid 280335Z - 280430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397
SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across the remaining valid
portions of the watch area.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite imagery shows a broken line of strong/occasionally severe thunderstorms over extreme southeast MN
east to near La Crosse, WI moving generally south. Thus far,
marginally severe hail has been reported in Olmsted County, MN, with
wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Recent radar trends suggest the
potential for strong/possibly severe wind gusts may be increasing as
a more elongated reflectivity structure develops and forward motion
increases. The evolving complex of storms should tend to move
south-southwest along the instability gradient over the next few
hours, and the downstream environment will remain favorable for a
continued severe wind/hail risk with strong instability (MUCAPE in
excess of 4000 J/kg) and 35-40 kts of northwesterly effective shear.
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