• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1369

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 28 03:35:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280335
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280335=20
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1369
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast MN...southwest WI...northeast IA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397...

    Valid 280335Z - 280430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across the remaining valid
    portions of the watch area.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite imagery shows a broken line of strong/occasionally severe thunderstorms over extreme southeast MN
    east to near La Crosse, WI moving generally south. Thus far,
    marginally severe hail has been reported in Olmsted County, MN, with
    wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Recent radar trends suggest the
    potential for strong/possibly severe wind gusts may be increasing as
    a more elongated reflectivity structure develops and forward motion
    increases. The evolving complex of storms should tend to move
    south-southwest along the instability gradient over the next few
    hours, and the downstream environment will remain favorable for a
    continued severe wind/hail risk with strong instability (MUCAPE in
    excess of 4000 J/kg) and 35-40 kts of northwesterly effective shear.

    ..Bunting.. 07/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qTTW6l25ylb5Rib6un9vJee0C5Nu0P7yh6AU0bUCkOnn5X6duWMiZK4StSBmxsIRMulyoWD-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43979304 44279231 44269148 44069110 43719080 43499048
    42949047 42559046 42289106 42299181 42479204 43049271
    43259290 43349298 43979304=20



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