• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1368

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 28 00:33:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280033
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280033=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1368
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0733 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southern MN...southwest WI...northeast
    IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 280033Z - 280200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop this evening with a risk for
    potentially very large hail and damaging gusts. Trends are being
    monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible prior to
    02-03z.

    DISCUSSION...A warm front has been gradually sharpening over
    southern MN and southwest WI, with strong instability in place as
    MLCAPE ranges from 2500 to 4000 J/kg based on latest objective
    analysis. Early evening visible imagery and recent radar data
    reveal attempts at convection initiation over southeast MN, and CAM
    guidance continues to suggest development in the vicinity of the
    MN/WI/IA border region over the next few hours, and possibly as far
    north as the Twin Cities where towering cumulus was noted on the
    last few 1-minute visible images. Modest height rises over the
    discussion area during the past several hours casts some uncertainty
    on the overall extent of thunderstorm development this evening,
    however storms that do develop would likely possess supercell
    structures initially and be capable of significant severe hail and
    damaging winds. At least some risk for a tornado will exist in the
    vicinity of the boundary where low-level SRH is locally enhanced.=20
    Increasing storm coverage with time would result in a transition to
    damaging winds as the primary severe threat.=20=20

    Short-term observational trends will continue to be monitored for
    the possibility of a watch prior to 02-03z.

    ..Bunting/Grams.. 07/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qAeAs-LOprKUpcekGS-HHxrNHi53w2uYw8dv_DUBYWW5NkNQf9MKvvFmZKOarInJWLvvrBwW$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 42099217 42289306 42959343 43809378 44249371 44749344
    45029318 45029300 44729229 44549183 44329121 44089069
    43769010 43428972 42958979 42479087 42099217=20



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