• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1366

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 27 20:37:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272036=20 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-272200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1366
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0336 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern NY...Southern New England

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395...396...

    Valid 272036Z - 272200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395, 396
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe potential continues across eastern NY and adjacent
    southern New England. Current trends suggest some severe potential
    may extend into far southeast NY, far northern NJ, and southern CT.
    A watch may need to be considered.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite imagery show that the main
    convective line extends from about 20 miles west of ALB
    southwestward into far northeast PA (about 25 miles northeast of
    IPT). Updraft strength and duration has varied within the this line,
    likely as a result of somewhat modest instability. Estimated storm
    motion within the southern end of the line is southeastward around
    31 kt, which places it at the southern edge of Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 396 near 22Z. Given the current storm trends and the warm and
    moist downstream air mass, some isolated severe threat may persist
    into far southern NY and southern CT. Northern portion of the line
    continues to move more eastward, with an estimated storm motion
    closer to 35 kt. As with areas southwestward, the downstream air
    mass is warm, moist, and modestly buoyant, suggesting severe
    potential will continue downstream.

    In addition to the convective line, some more discrete development
    has occurred on the southern edge of a previously decayed cluster of
    showers and thunderstorm. More discrete storm character has allowed
    for stronger updrafts and a relatively greater chance for a strong
    downburst.

    ..Mosier.. 07/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sT6zov7F_IcF9UU3M36R-bJP_N4hoBllcP9oPqM_EPvGo6YLC2VPD4dkU-5TfaGi0vIxqDjZ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 43077442 43247395 43487267 43177131 42577081 41857096
    41377178 40757358 40887475 41727660 42497521 43077442=20



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