• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1365

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 27 18:01:56 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271801
    SPC MCD 271801=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1365
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0101 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

    Areas affected...Western/Central/Eastern NY...Southern
    VT...Western/Central MA...Northern CT

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395...

    Valid 271801Z - 271930Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395

    SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across western
    and central NY. A downstream watch across eastern NY and adjacent
    areas will likely be needed soon.

    DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite imagery show two lines of
    convection pushing across western and central NY. The lead line
    extends from RME southwestward to ITH. The second line extends from
    FZY southwestward to OLE. While initially stronger, the lead line
    has been on a weakening trend for the past half hour. In contract,
    the second has seen a gradual increase in intensity. This increase
    in intensity appears to be associated with a modest increase in
    instability and decrease in convective inhibition ahead of the line. Additionally, new development has recently occurred over Cattaraugus
    and Allegany Counties as the second line intersects the outflow of
    the leading convective line. Deep westerly flow aloft will result in
    fast storm motion as well as the potential for damaging wind gusts
    as these storms continue eastward.

    Current estimated storm motion is about 45 kt with the north end of
    the line. As a result, it is expected to reach the edge of Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 395 around or before 19Z. Given the recent
    trends, a downstream watch will likely be needed across more of
    eastern NY and adjacent southern VT, western/central MA, and
    northern CT.

    ..Mosier.. 07/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u-pup6_GhgY_xDy4F7EzgEmls4bNAQJpJAh0a7g6igQb9zbBLY0ouIW6JwNUGmw9XRbEdrG4$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43247776 43567687 43567597 43427488 42897280 41707313
    41767567 41857726 42167875 43247776=20

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