• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1364

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 27 14:34:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271434
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271433=20
    NYZ000-271630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1364
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0933 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

    Areas affected...Western NY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 271433Z - 271630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across western NY
    within the next hour or two. Some of these storms could become
    strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts and trends are being
    monitored for possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite and radar imagery reveals a
    compact vorticity maximum/mesoscale convective vortex moving from
    southern Lake Huron into southwestern Ontario. Some deeper
    convection has been noted just ahead of this vorticity max across
    central portions of southwestern Ontario, likely associated with the
    stronger ascent attendant to the MCV. Based on current motion, this
    area of stronger ascent should reach BUF vicinity around 16Z before
    then continuing downstream across western NY.=20

    The air mass preceding this vorticity maximum is under full sun,
    with temperatures likely reaching the low 80s within the next two
    hours. Dewpoints are currently in the low 60s, but some mixing is
    anticipated under the strong diurnal heating, likely dropping
    dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s (perhaps even lower with eastern
    extent) as the forcing for ascent arrives. As such, updraft strength
    may be somewhat tempered by modest buoyancy. Nevertheless, enhanced unidirectional westerly flow could still result in some stronger
    downbursts capable of damage. Trends are being monitored for
    possible watch issuance.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tFAFhQlU_K4Ym7U4FbpVVtA01XEhGLlbAHNJ3tUy7GQhBycerQ6PpkTf-eBNoob3ZTlDNTR8$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 42307905 42477924 42847894 43227900 43347856 43257722
    43387663 43437638 43387604 43217585 42837598 42637621
    42287680 42107747 42137837 42207878 42307905=20



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