• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1363

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 27 12:48:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271248
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271248=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-271445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1363
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0748 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern MN...far northeastern
    IA...and southwestern WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 271248Z - 271445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A small cluster of storms may pose an isolated hail/wind
    threat in the short term, but watch issuance is not expected at this
    time.

    DISCUSSION...Convection associated with a modest west-southwesterly
    low-level jet has persisted over the past several hours across
    western WI. This activity has largely remained elevated while posing
    mainly an isolated threat for small hail. Recently these storms have
    congealed into small cluster while moving south-southeastward.
    Recent imagery from the KARX radar shows strong inbound velocities
    (40-50+ kt) moving across west-central WI, and isolated
    severe/damaging wind gusts appear possible in the short term as this
    activity spreads into parts of southwestern WI. Marginally severe
    hail may also occur with any embedded supercell. However,
    instability rapidly decreases with southward extent across this
    region. Current expectations are for these storms to weaken over the
    next couple of hours as they encounter a less favorable
    thermodynamic environment and as the low-level jet shifts eastward
    across the Great Lakes.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oqkA-jBJUi-L75Cw18OMIPZ7Z1F6FCCB71_lcdaRIQFf75qNdKmyz6zMqs38nwmlU0zh9IGc$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

    LAT...LON 43629174 43979173 44279130 44429046 44368998 43848964
    43318960 42939013 43009107 43629174=20



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