• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1362

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 27 09:00:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270900
    SPC MCD 270900=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1362
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0400 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern MN and far western WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 270900Z - 271130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for mainly isolated large hail may exist early
    this morning with elevated storms. The coverage and intensity of
    these storms remain uncertain, and watch issuance appears unlikely
    at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of storms have recently developed across parts
    of east-central MN in a low-level warm advection regime
    characterized by 25-35 kt of west-southwesterly flow in the 0-2-km
    layer AGL per recent VWP estimates from KMPX. This convection is
    currently located near a surface front/composite outflow boundary
    from earlier storms across WI, and is likely slightly elevated. If
    these storms can be maintained and move southward over the next
    couple of hours, they will encounter a rather unstable airmass with
    MUCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg. The flow above the boundary layer
    veers quickly to northwesterly while also strengthening, and about
    45-50 kt of effective bulk shear will easily support supercell
    structures. Steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the 00Z ABR/MPX
    soundings, coupled with the rather favorable thermodynamic and
    kinematic environment, suggest an isolated threat for large hail
    with any supercell that can be sustained. Occasional strong to
    severe wind gusts also appear possible given the moderate to strong
    instability south of the boundary. However, considerable uncertainty
    remains regarding storm coverage and intensity, as large-scale
    forcing for ascent at mid levels remains nebulous. Given these
    uncertainties, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time, but
    observational trends will be closely monitored.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pNHZS7ZdXfzk93NnTBPnezLcMGL2oMQsquwnb5KSy3b87PqeOwrcOLfjh4uI-2KMLRZutXVk$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 45209477 46019475 46359388 46269314 45799236 45309152
    44589185 44449361 45209477=20

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