• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1361

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 27 04:50:54 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270450
    SPC MCD 270450=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1361
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1150 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

    Areas affected...Northern WI...southern Upper MI...northwest Lower

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 270450Z - 270545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts embedded within a progressive linear
    segment should persist for another couple hours, but an overall
    weakening trend is anticipated overnight. Tree and power line damage
    are the main threats across northeast WI into parts of MI. Isolated
    severe hail may persist within a narrow corridor across northwest

    DISCUSSION...Overall CAPPI trends, echo tops, and IR cloud top
    temperatures, along with increasing discontinuities in 45-dBZ
    reflectivities suggest the southeast-progressing MCS is in a
    large-scale decaying phase. Nevertheless, the 45-50 kt forward
    progression along with several measured gusts of 35-50 kt suggest
    that scattered tree damage should persist in the near-term across
    northeast WI into southern Upper MI. The more prominent wind damage
    threat should exist across northeast WI where residual steep
    low-level lapse rates persist atop the nocturnal boundary-layer, as
    this region had warmed through the 80s earlier today. Expectation is
    for this MCS to weaken more abruptly as it reaches Lake MI and
    further decay with a stable air mass farther east into Lower MI.

    Isolated severe hail may continue within the low-level
    warm-advection regime in the wake of this MCS across northwest WI.
    Overall spatial extent of this threat will probably remain too
    limited to warrant another severe thunderstorm watch.

    ..Grams.. 07/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oIVrAmy1KjnXAWdTVmsTGGOf1JUPCF5F1zTjF31kNQWZnpuT51pr3SpeQTbKlRgghCEsQ_zi$=
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    LAT...LON 46108712 46078565 46108499 45738483 44988513 44238568
    43768605 43598673 43618790 43758852 44248953 44639010
    45149066 45939179 46469205 46829190 46749099 46099009
    45738913 45998770 46108712=20

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