• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1360

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 27 01:42:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270142
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270141=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-270315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1360
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0841 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

    Areas affected...East-central MN...Northwest WI...Western Upper MI

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393...394...

    Valid 270141Z - 270315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393, 394
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for hail and damaging wind continues with
    ongoing thunderstorm cluster. Watch issuance downstream is possible
    by 02-03Z if the short-term intensity of this cluster is maintained.

    DISCUSSION...At 0130Z, a long-lived thunderstorm cluster is
    approaching northwest WI from northeast MN. While MLCINH will
    increase with time across the region, the intensity of this cluster
    may be maintained into a larger portion of northwest WI, where
    somewhat stronger heating occurred earlier in the day and the
    environment may still support near-surface-based updrafts for
    another 2-3 hours. Even if the system becomes somewhat elevated,
    MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt will
    continue to favor organized storm structures through the evening.=20

    Recent radar trends indicate that the cluster is taking on more of a
    linear mode as the system accelerates southeastward. As a result,
    the primary threat may be transitioning to damaging wind, though
    some hail remains possible with the strongest embedded cores. New
    watch issuance downstream is possible by 02-03Z if the short-term
    intensity of the cluster is maintained this evening.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 07/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uFF-y9-U1MMxOsB3KkL2ANH6stWiCiNEJ7N4NIIGARZWWNwPKVnO6tq2UXD_Or44mK5EuI1D$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 46789311 46899175 46959037 46979017 46788936 46548900
    46198905 45478953 45249079 45379200 45859306 46789311=20



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