• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1359

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 27 00:40:56 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270040
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270040=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-270215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1359
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0740 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota...far northeast South
    Dakota...and western Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393...

    Valid 270040Z - 270215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat may be waning in the western
    half of watch 393.

    DISCUSSION...At least one supercell formed along the surface front
    in central North Dakota, but any additional attempts struggled. In
    the last 30 minutes this supercell has weakened and is now gone.
    Additional convection is trying to form along the front, but
    considering the history of the recent supercell which was able to
    seemingly reach maturity during peak surface instability, the chance
    for additional storms may be waning, especially as the boundary
    layer begins to cool. The primary low-level jet axis is east of this
    area with any additional isentropic ascent expected to be focused
    across eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Therefore, without
    any additional sources for ascent, the window for severe storms
    across the western half of watch 393 is waning. Trends will continue
    to be monitored for another hour or two, but portions of watch 393
    may be cancelled early if a lack of severe storms becomes
    increasingly obvious.

    ..Bentley/Dean.. 07/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ts2CTlFxWY3gACwYyPCu8zpdaEGmpCI6mk3vZdBTUBVMjD5Ddf09__PyP2Joq0wl-3pv--He$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46780009 47209818 47229568 46939474 46609443 46039444
    45889457 45589524 45269677 45079854 45299960 45800012
    46780009=20



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