• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1358

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 27 00:12:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270012
    SPC MCD 270012=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1358
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0712 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast MN into northwest WI

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393...

    Valid 270012Z - 270145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393

    SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail and locally damaging wind
    continues with ongoing supercell cluster across northeast MN. This
    cluster will likely spread into northwest WI, where new watch
    issuance is likely by 01Z.

    DISCUSSION...At 00Z, an intense thunderstorm cluster with embedded
    supercells is ongoing across northeast MN. The strongest cell within
    this cluster earlier produced baseball-size hail, damaging wind, and
    a tornado across northern MN. MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and
    effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercell
    structures as the cluster spreads southeastward, with renewed
    development possible along the southwestern flank as the low-level
    jet gradually increases this evening.=20

    Some uncertainty remains regarding whether this cluster will evolve
    into a forward propagating MCS, or persist as a supercell cluster.
    In either case, a significant hail and wind threat is expected to
    spread into northwest WI this evening, with a tornado or two also
    possible if the supercell mode is maintained. A new severe
    thunderstorm watch will likely be issued for northwest WI by 01Z.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 07/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oP15i0HzW_rhnSpIC3akKt4QJf0KLzqRscMnalPe6zpE1C3E4h3WkrFxL-wLFvN8d85Y16hl$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 47239444 47549316 47529205 47349131 47139072 46369045
    45779022 45809189 45839353 46159444 47229464 47239444=20

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