• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1356

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 26 22:02:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262202
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262201=20
    UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-270000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1356
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0501 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest UT into southern NV

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 262201Z - 270000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters capable of locally strong/severe
    wind gusts and perhaps some hail will continue through the
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A few areas of stronger thunderstorms have developed
    across portions of southwest UT into southern NV, within an
    environment characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective
    shear generally ranging from 15-25 kt, per recent objective
    mesoanalyses. While this environment is only supportive of transient
    storm organization, modestly-enhanced steering flow to the north of
    the weak midlevel trough over southern CA may support a couple of outflow-driven clusters capable of isolated strong/severe wind
    gusts. Instability may also be sufficient to support a marginal hail
    risk with the strongest updrafts.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 07/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qaAvm4re-_Lz1wWukPNOKtmOVo-uu5inkrvmQzAm5b97H_mrRENZT85Q-01CMpDtENIsKvjT$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

    LAT...LON 38751243 38251139 37611130 37131194 36841333 36851384
    36991603 37211745 37281755 38271766 38501712 38931461
    38931361 38751243=20



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