• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1355

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 26 22:01:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262201
    SPC MCD 262200=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1355
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

    Areas affected...north-central and northeast Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 262200Z - 270000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of very large hail, gusty
    thunderstorm winds, and a tornado or two will be possible across the
    area this afternoon and evening. A watch will likely be needed for
    portions of the area later today.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms persist across north-central
    Minnesota this afternoon associated with modest warm-air advection
    along a west-northwest to east-southeast warm-front draped across
    northern Minnesota. Although temperatures have warmed into the
    mid-to-upper-80s F along both sides of the warm front, surface
    moisture, as measured by dewpoints, dramatically increases to the
    south, rising from mid 50s F north to mid 60s F south. The result is
    a strongly unstable airmass along and south of the warm front.
    Strong deep-layer shear across the region will likely sustain
    thunderstorm intensity and organization into he evening hours, with
    supercell thunderstorms possible.=20

    Warm-air advection is expected to continue through the evening
    hours, even strengthening after 00Z. The result should be one or
    more rounds of thunderstorms across the region. Given the degree of
    instability and strong shear, very large hail and gusty thunderstorm
    winds will be likely with any intense thunderstorm. Additionally,
    the presence of a warm-front across the area will result in the
    potential for a tornado or two with any surface-based or
    near-surface-based supercell that interacts with the warm front.

    A watch will likely be needed this afternoon or evening across
    portions of the area.

    ..Marsh/Grams.. 07/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vNF1nvA0igSM9SY8p1P7vn_FZonN4Wy021oyFRRN2SwK57e2Dc5CBYtQboMb5FzHe_Loy7fn$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 47809584 48309571 48549430 48319312 47879203 47279165
    46519166 45699292 46009468 47069564 47809584=20

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