Mesoscale Discussion 1354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021
Areas affected...Far northeast North Carolina and far southeast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 262143Z - 262315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...There will be an isolated damaging wind threat across far
southeast Virginia and far northeast North Carolina over the next 1
to 2 hours. No watch is anticipated.
DISCUSSION...The cluster of storms which produced some damaging wind
across eastern Virginia has shown some weakening as it moves
southward toward areas with decreasing effective shear. However, the
airmass ahead of these storms is still quite unstable with MLCAPE
around 2500 J/kg. Therefore, an isolated severe wind threat may
persist as this activity moves southeastward out of watch 392.
However, a more organized threat is not anticipated, and therefore,
no downstream watch is planned.
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