• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1353

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 26 21:43:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262143
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262142=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-262345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1353
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0442 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

    Areas affected...eastern North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262142Z - 262345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across central
    and eastern North Dakota. Very large hail and strong thunderstorm
    outflow winds will be possible with any thunderstorm. A watch may
    become necessary should confidence in initiation increase.

    DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery depicts clumping
    cumulus developing across Burleigh and Morton counties in central
    North Dakota. This is in response to sustained low-level convergence
    along a weak surface boundary within a broad area of lower pressure
    across the northern Plains. Surface temperatures in the mid-to-upper
    90s F coupled with dewpoints in the mid-60s to around 70 F have
    resulted in a very unstable airmass, characterized by most-unstable
    CAPE values in excess of 3500 J/kg and decreasing convective
    inhibition. Some high-resolution guidance develops robust convection
    within this area of sustained low-level convergence and decreasing
    inhibition over the next couple of hours. Strong deep-layer shear
    greater than 40 knots and mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km will
    support vigorous updrafts capable of producing very large hail and
    gusty thunderstorm winds with any thunderstorm.=20

    If confidence in convective initiation increases, a watch may be
    required for portions of eastern North Dakota. This area will
    continue to be monitored.

    ..Marsh/Grams.. 07/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sa0xNlk-ZVuc0Xi5YOvkbwVBlxjTTQbvMUlBGKlqoWPmVEsEI74ICdngHUUDoJnduvxnVH74$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46690103 47380046 47619940 47619820 47139688 46469669
    46079699 46049828 46009983 46190089 46400099 46690103=20



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