• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1352

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 26 21:32:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262131
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262131=20
    WIZ000-MIZ000-262300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1352
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0431 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northeast Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 262131Z - 262300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may pose a large hail and damaging
    wind threat over the next 1 to 2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s with
    dewpoints in the mid 60s across north central Wisconsin. This
    destabilization has been sufficient to erode surface inhibition
    according to SPC mesoanalysis with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Flow is
    less than 30kts in the lowest 5km, but strengthens to near 50 knots
    above 8km per KGRB VWP. Given storm depth around 12km, and the
    observations from the VWP, the effective shear is probably greater
    than the 25 knots shown on SPC mesoanalysis. Stronger effective
    shear would also explain the organization of the large supercell
    north of Green Bay. This supercell currently shows MESH around 1.5
    inches. This cell has turned right and may try to continue southward
    along the instability gradient. However, expect this supercell to
    eventually move eastward over Lake Michigan and into an airmass with
    decreasing instability and increasing inhibition which should limit
    storm intensity. Given the small temporal and areal threat from this
    storm activity, no watch is anticipated, but some large hail and
    damaging winds may be possible over the next 1 to 2 hours.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 07/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qftkRM2pOxFxGtbPeT2elVAZNr-9hPrDgOmBZXPZyuxcfUz_ljINbrwU1DUT7e37BN0dwsiC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...

    LAT...LON 45698838 45478757 45258730 44958721 44488725 44238741
    43798769 43838813 43978841 44148870 44428889 44798883
    45698838=20



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