• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1350

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 26 16:58:59 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1627318743-2011-2527
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 261658
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261658=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-261900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1350
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1158 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

    Areas affected...Central/eastern Virginia...central North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 261658Z - 261900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms are developing along the Blue Ridge and
    will pose a threat for damaging winds as they move
    east/southeastward this afternoon. The threat will be maximized with
    any clusters that can develop. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely
    for parts of Virginia/North Carolina.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are in the process of forming
    along the Blue Ridge. With temperatures in the mid/upper 80s F and
    dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE has already
    developed. Continued heating this afternoon will probably bring
    temperatures near to just above 90 F in spots. Given the depth of
    the moist layer on 12Z observed regional soundings, dewpoints should
    generally hold steady as well. Despite weak deep-layer shear, storm
    coverage and congealing cold pools seem likely to lead to a few
    semi-organized clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. Slightly
    cooler temperatures aloft in Virginia give slightly higher
    confidence to more intense/organized activity than farther to the
    south. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed this
    afternoon as activity continues to slowly intensify over the next
    few hours.

    ..Wendt/Wendt.. 07/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rbNIrya87u3tO2S90B59BdLS1ki4O3HLp3cGsYPdEDMODlKCcFPPgY_s8LGhpBN__NdCNING$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

    LAT...LON 35548126 36168100 37517918 38037794 38107725 37387693
    36367749 35357965 34998028 35548126=20



    ------------=_1627318743-2011-2527
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1627318743-2011-2527--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 26 17:03:30 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1627319013-2011-2528
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 261703
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261703 COR
    VAZ000-NCZ000-261900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1350
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

    Areas affected...Central/eastern Virginia...central North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 261703Z - 261900Z

    CORRECTED FOR FORECASTER

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms are developing along the Blue Ridge and
    will pose a threat for damaging winds as they move
    east/southeastward this afternoon. The threat will be maximized with
    any clusters that can develop. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely
    for parts of Virginia/North Carolina.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are in the process of forming
    along the Blue Ridge. With temperatures in the mid/upper 80s F and
    dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE has already
    developed. Continued heating this afternoon will probably bring
    temperatures near to just above 90 F in spots. Given the depth of
    the moist layer on 12Z observed regional soundings, dewpoints should
    generally hold steady as well. Despite weak deep-layer shear, storm
    coverage and congealing cold pools seem likely to lead to a few
    semi-organized clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. Slightly
    cooler temperatures aloft in Virginia give slightly higher
    confidence to more intense/organized activity than farther to the
    south. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed this
    afternoon as activity continues to slowly intensify over the next
    few hours.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u8J4sgtlSt6bTmW8FqWmLzFC2vlRiR0Wth7U-8EhYRt5UtvnLNqsIrAWkSnw8R1Gpj_Gnkdu$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

    LAT...LON 35548126 36168100 37517918 38037794 38107725 37387693
    36367749 35357965 34998028 35548126=20



    ------------=_1627319013-2011-2528
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1627319013-2011-2528--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)