• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1349

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 26 02:49:54 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 260249
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260249=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-260445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1349
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0949 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

    Areas affected...southeast North Dakota...northeast South
    Dakota...and western Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 260249Z - 260445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage this
    evening. Isolated large hail and gusty thunderstorm winds will be
    possible -- especially with initial development. Given the isolated/disorganized nature of any severe threat, a watch is
    currently not expected, but conditions will continue to be
    monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
    expand in coverage this evening into the overnight hours across
    portions of southeast North Dakota, northeast South Dakota, and
    western Minnesota. These thunderstorms are developing on the nose of
    modest warm-air advection between 850 and 700 millibars. This
    airmass being advected in remains largely unstable, with
    most-unstable CAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg across
    north-central South Dakota. Although deep-layer shear is between 35
    and 40 knots, effective-layer shear remains poor -- largely
    remaining less than 20 knots. Given the degree of instability and
    mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, isolated large hail and gusty
    thunderstorm winds may occur with initial updraft pulses. However,
    the lack of effective-layer shear should hinder thunderstorm
    organization, and increasing thunderstorms coverage should result in destructive interference to support a sustained/organized severe
    weather threat. As such a watch is currently not anticipated, but
    conditions will continue to be monitored.

    ..Marsh/Grams.. 07/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!smxa9qL3MYU2apgfQKyQZeEKxqYedEGouXo3X5neqWKBF24iq0beh2AU19GO9gvBuw2YzS5O$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...

    LAT...LON 45999764 46529769 46819682 46369530 45659464 44889463
    44579537 45019685 45619761 45999764=20



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