• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1346

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 25 21:58:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252158
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252157=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-252330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1346
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0457 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

    Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...far western
    Oklahoma...and extreme northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 252157Z - 252330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue across the area this
    afternoon. Extreme instability will support brief potential for
    severe hail and wind with the strongest thunderstorm updrafts. Weak
    shear should limit the overall severe threat. A watch is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop within a
    band of low-level convergence associated with the lee trough.
    Extreme instability, most-unstable CAPE in excess of 3500 J/kg, may
    support brief, isolated large hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows
    with the strongest updraft pulses. However, weak effective-layer
    shear -- between 10-15 knots -- will limit overall thunderstorm
    organization to storm-scale processes. Thunderstorm intensity should
    wane later this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. The
    overall disorganized nature of the threat should preclude the need
    of a watch.

    ..Marsh/Grams.. 07/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r-s4Zb3df8BhkqWgh0aMyxDkRsJa8CPuYa2MwZqHVp0wkimzvwf9v8EbJwfP4E9WUYcYcaiU$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 36800127 36950094 36959975 36709946 35609948 34659950
    34109971 33510045 33850150 34990158 36190138 36800127=20



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