• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1345

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 25 20:28:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252028
    SPC MCD 252028=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1345
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0328 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 252028Z - 252230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely-scattered storms are possible in South
    Dakota this afternoon/early-evening. Storm coverage is not certain,
    but a few supercell storms could pose a threat for damaging winds
    and large hail. No watch is anticipated, but trends will be

    DISCUSSION...Cumulus development along a weak warm front from
    southwestern into northeastern South Dakota is increasing this
    afternoon. With continued heating, as well as an expected weak
    increase in 850 mb winds into the boundary this evening, may promote
    isolated to widely-scattered storm development. Regional 12Z
    observed soundings sampled steep mid-level lapse rates with
    low-level lapse rates also quite steep given strong heating. Modest northwesterly flow aloft has contributed to around 35-50 kts of
    effective shear roughly perpendicular to the boundary. Storms would
    likely be supercellular in character. Damaging winds and large hail
    would be possible. Large hail would have a higher probability in
    northeast South Dakota where shear is stronger. There is a fair
    amount of uncertainty as to the coverage of storms as overall
    large-scale support is weak. Some guidance does develop a small
    cluster this afternoon and evening, however. Should that occur, a
    greater wind gust threat would also develop. While a watch is not
    currently anticipated, trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uk03livU1aiB-WHcga1ObUeFTGeY3ehkQibI4HVEarOPjZRvUnxwvc2hoDxxiR7a5rYIF0bn$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43600296 44500168 45539946 45699841 45609797 45399765
    44929781 43410002 42890180 42730256 43050317 43600296=20

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