• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1344

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 25 00:32:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250032
    SPC MCD 250031=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1344
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0731 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southern Lower MI...western Lake Erie...northwestern OH...northern IN...and northern/central IL.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390...391...

    Valid 250031Z - 250230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390, 391

    SUMMARY...Bands of thunderstorms will continue to offer a threat for
    damaging gusts from central/northeastern IL to southern MI, and a
    pocket of additional tornado potential exists in the southeastern
    Lower MI area. Another watch may be required in a narrow corridor
    southeast of the existing watches over portions of northwestern OH
    and/or central/northeastern IN.

    DISCUSSION...The most intense band of convection continues to be the
    activity moving southeastward at an erratic/25-35-kt pace across
    southeastern Lower MI. In addition to damaging gusts, a couple
    tornadoes appear to have occurred in the last hour, within short-
    lived but intense embedded mesocyclones. This potential will
    continue for another hour or two as the convection encounters a
    pocket of relatively high-SRH air (effective SRH 150-350 J/kg),
    based on radar imagery, VWP analysis and objective mesoanalysis

    Low-level shear decreases with southwestward extent over IN and
    central IL where surface winds are more veered, generally in step
    with an increase in buoyancy (as represented by a westward-
    broadening, prefrontal corridor of MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg
    range). Still, given the available moisture and depth of the
    buoyant layer, water-loaded downdrafts still will be capable of
    localized damaging to severe gusts. Theta-e and buoyancy will
    continue to diminish with southeastward extent over western OH and
    eastern IN, but activity may continue at or near severe levels past
    the current versions of both watches (in space and time).=20
    Additional local extensions or a narrow new watch could be needed to
    cover this potential into the evening.

    ..Edwards.. 07/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u7K9YS7uS3Ji2WFSghte3NiLJMBrw_d-srtMBQf-8clgTQs3u6673_3UjA64vfTqodEhDrGx$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40478983 40598861 41048714 41468576 41958541 42568333
    42418299 41918312 41568298 40658465 40158715 40158983

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