• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1342

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 24 20:01:42 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242001
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242001=20
    NMZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-242200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1342
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0301 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

    Areas affected...Four Corners into southern Nevada

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 242001Z - 242200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Several clusters of thunderstorms across northern New
    Mexico and southern Utah have recently shown signs of
    intensification. These storms and additional development may pose a
    risk for damaging winds or small hail this afternoon and evening.

    DISCUSSION...Within a monsoonal flow regime beneath a weak upper
    low, strong diurnal heating and weak ascent have allowed several
    clusters of thunderstorms to become established over portions of the
    Southwest in the last couple of hours. As heating and orographic
    ascent continue, additional thunderstorm development appears likely.
    Within the high PWAT airmass, SPC mesoanalysis indicates 500-1000
    J/kg of MLCAPE has developed. While thermodynamics are favorable for
    robust updrafts, a blocking ridge of high pressure in the mid levels
    should limit flow aloft and resulting vertical shear to below 25
    kts. A multicellular storm mode is expected with the stronger storms
    capable of damaging wind gusts and small hail. A locally greater
    risk of damaging wind gusts may develop if storm outflows are able
    to evolve into small clusters as suggested by some hi-res guidance.
    However, given the low predictability and expected limited severe
    threat, a watch is unlikely at this time.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v28cq0Xdto-QX-hJomTkgPmd4MEBgZVo7dlquZz-ND_Qtb01W1NLjVevNaA62inOGz-HFlTF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

    LAT...LON 36521526 37381456 37601320 37611229 37571105 37230966
    37010892 36630819 36250784 35800784 35230798 34800888
    34740966 34721061 34851193 35021295 35191412 36521526=20



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