• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1340

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 24 18:22:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241822
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241821=20
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-242015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1340
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0121 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

    Areas affected...Much of central and southern lower Michigan into
    adjacent portions of northwestern Ohio and northern Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 241821Z - 242015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...At least scattered thunderstorm development still appears
    probable, now mostly likely around 4-6 PM EDT, with the potential to
    organize into clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts.=20
    Trends continue to be monitored for the possibility of a severe
    weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...Initial attempts at intensifying thunderstorm
    development across/east of the Houghton Lake vicinity appear to be
    waning, perhaps due to weakening of the trailing mid-level cyclonic
    vorticity center. However, the boundary layer across much of
    central and southern lower Michigan remains moist, modestly unstable
    and weakly inhibited, to the south of the effective warm frontal
    zone, and ahead of conglomerate convective outflow trailing across
    northern Lake Michigan through southern Wisconsin.=20=20

    Although the mid-level trough axis is in the process of shifting
    across and northeast of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity,
    moderately strong (40+ kt around 500 mb) west-northwesterly
    mid-level flow will maintain strong deep-layer shear across the
    region into this evening. Beneath this regime, it still appears
    that continuing daytime heating will support the initiation of at
    least scattered thunderstorm activity, perhaps focused on the lake
    breeze advancing inland off Lake Michigan. Aided by the shear, this
    activity may tend to grow upscale, with organizing clusters posing a
    risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rrdEZhn0jPBd1-sNcTQA_oIuHslP3MVl54VbiSFANwmMdR8JQVqVicKfd8zClYQmfwhppWPH$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

    LAT...LON 41798656 42398606 43928602 44548520 43718306 42148299
    41198652 41448715 41798656=20



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