The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388, 389
SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe wind threat should continue
into west-central Minnesota early this morning.
DISCUSSION...A wind gust to 63 mph was recently measured at a
mesonet site in far northeastern SD with a small cluster of storms.
There is convection occurring ahead of this cluster in a low-level
warm advection regime across west-central MN. Still, the airmass
downstream across this region remains somewhat favorable for
surface-based storms, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE present per
latest mesoanalysis estimates. The influence of glancing ascent
associated with an upper-level trough and modestly enhanced
mid-level winds should continue to support storm organization early
this morning. With the mainly linear structure ongoing ahead of a
surface cold front, isolated strong to severe winds gusts should
remain the primary threat in the short term. Some hail may also
occur. It remains unclear how long the severe threat will continue
across MN, as the better boundary-layer instability and potential
for surface-based storms will probably remain slightly to the south
of a convectively reinforced boundary extending across central MN.
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