• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1338

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 24 06:11:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240611
    SPC MCD 240610=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1338
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0110 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far eastern SD into west-central MN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388...389...

    Valid 240610Z - 240745Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388, 389

    SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe wind threat should continue
    into west-central Minnesota early this morning.

    DISCUSSION...A wind gust to 63 mph was recently measured at a
    mesonet site in far northeastern SD with a small cluster of storms.
    There is convection occurring ahead of this cluster in a low-level
    warm advection regime across west-central MN. Still, the airmass
    downstream across this region remains somewhat favorable for
    surface-based storms, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE present per
    latest mesoanalysis estimates. The influence of glancing ascent
    associated with an upper-level trough and modestly enhanced
    mid-level winds should continue to support storm organization early
    this morning. With the mainly linear structure ongoing ahead of a
    surface cold front, isolated strong to severe winds gusts should
    remain the primary threat in the short term. Some hail may also
    occur. It remains unclear how long the severe threat will continue
    across MN, as the better boundary-layer instability and potential
    for surface-based storms will probably remain slightly to the south
    of a convectively reinforced boundary extending across central MN.

    ..Gleason.. 07/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oFUIIJcxMVmaLqJMd692Wi2K24igXhDt5B1qrPLzS6rlt_jusvgGAke0HXCATkbAzxBQyV_D$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 44879536 45309682 45869650 46229650 46559649 46749605
    46739506 46269450 45119438 44869475 44879536=20

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