• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1336

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 24 02:08:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240208
    SPC MCD 240207=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1336
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0907 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

    Areas affected...eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 240207Z - 240430Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will move from South Dakota into
    Minnesota, possibly with strong gust potential.

    DISCUSSION...Sporadic storms have developed within a broad band of precipitation extending from north-central NE into eastern SD.
    Despite cooler boundary-layer temperatures, robust moisture is in
    place with PWAT over 2.00" measured on GPS sensors near FSD.

    Warmer midlevel temperatures exist in this region compared to
    farther north, which is hampering hail potential. In addition,
    deep-layer shear is less with only 25-30 kt winds at 500 mb. Despite
    this, a growing cluster of storms may be able to produce strong,
    water-loaded downdrafts, as instability remains favorable downstream
    into MN. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for upscale
    growth that may necessitate watch consideration.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 07/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sMoNXnA-UiFWvaElj94BK-QQfXRG07lMdmTy5mdOBl5KuLhXHdUq7L8hMlifYtWjSSthPdPv$=
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    LAT...LON 43379743 43259832 43439886 43829913 44209909 44579855
    44819762 45079593 44859553 44449524 43999528 43689585
    43569655 43379743=20

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