• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1334

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 23 22:05:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232205
    SPC MCD 232204=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1334
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0504 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

    Areas affected...southern North Dakota into northern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 232204Z - 240100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to form through evening,
    either side of the North and South Dakota border. Large hail and
    severe gusts will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a pressure trough from central
    SD curling northeastward toward the Red River, with mid/upper 90s
    temperatures common. A diffuse midlevel temperature gradient exists
    across the Dakotas from north to south, with 500 mb temperatures to
    -10 C near KBIS. Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg,
    with deep-layer shear approaching 50 kt.

    Gradual height falls will occur through the evening, with increasing northwesterly 850 mb winds developing from northwest to southeast
    across the western Dakotas. Increasing lift may thus result in one
    or more clusters of severe storms with east/southeast motion.
    Isolated peak-heating storms may also form over northwest SD (west
    of an extensive cloud deck), or near the Black Hills, with hail and
    wind potential.

    A watch could be required later this evening if it becomes apparent
    severe storm coverage will be more than isolated.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 07/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vYVAEajTLG5SOQOrXgbsVEoFfJeXuGe-uswYG6hr6RW1hyXM1pdZuCyj10xpYkAXZhcLMno3$=
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    LAT...LON 47019863 47099744 46849702 45789709 44809718 44549748
    44399846 44639960 44910099 45010199 44990264 44820305
    44540317 44140336 44130360 44470377 45350367 45610357
    45760307 46470190 46880018 47019863=20

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