• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1331

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 23 18:26:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231825
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231825=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-232030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1331
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0125 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

    Areas affected...Northwest Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 231825Z - 232030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop sooner than forecast guidance
    has suggested, possibly within the next couple of hours. Large hail
    and damaging winds would be the main threats this afternoon/evening.
    Trends are being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures in northwestern Minnesota have risen into
    the low 90s F. This has occurred quicker than forecast guidance has
    suggested. With dewpoints still holding in the low 70s F, MLCAPE is
    also increasing to above 1500 J/kg. Within this environment, a field
    of cumulus has developed along with a handful of deeper towers in
    the vicinity of Thief River Falls. With an upstream shortwave trough
    evident on water vapor imagery within western/central North Dakota,
    subtle mid-level cooling will occur in northern Minnesota this
    afternoon. These factors would suggest that convection initiation is
    becoming more probable, perhaps as early as within the next couple
    of hours. With all 12Z guidance forecasting initiation during the
    late afternoon, timing remains the greatest uncertainty. When storms
    develop, long, straight hodographs with 35-40 kts of effective shear
    will favor splitting supercells capable of damaging winds and large
    hail. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible this afternoon
    depending on convective trends over the next few hours.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tPQl3IcESUr8FD8eEt1CgEoUxsQjLcEGTemHuRQ4wvPitO6_BZfvPiYye_eQoDYhoy1UBP88$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

    LAT...LON 47519741 48339689 48949640 49029567 48679464 48199411
    47449404 46989473 46969686 47209732 47519741=20



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