• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1330

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 23 02:05:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 230205
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230204=20
    NDZ000-MTZ000-230400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1330
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0904 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

    Areas affected...northeast Montana into northwest North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386...

    Valid 230204Z - 230400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A few severe gusts remain possible across eastern parts of
    WW 386, and storms may affect extreme northwestern North Dakota.
    However, additional watches are unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms with a history of measured severe
    gusts continues to rapidly progress across northeast MT, and will
    likely affect a small portion of ND. While temperatures are cooler
    downstream of these storms, greater boundary-layer moisture content
    yields higher MLCAPE values per objective analysis, and effective
    shear remains favorable at 40+ kt.

    Given only a small threat area in time and space east of WW 386,
    another watch is unlikely. Isolated wind damage remains the primary
    concern, but hail cannot be ruled out if storms can utilize the
    better moisture prior to capping increasing too much.

    ..Jewell.. 07/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q0hEt49QjECzLQW80T_sn2gzxC59NAOT9nIwqEojUEJdNsLG7JfKV2wydQR5OBoPaQbHL5lj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

    LAT...LON 48120272 47660572 47640629 47880643 48330615 49030609
    49000227 48120272=20



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